Independent variable

Model(1)

Model(2)

Model(3)

Model(4)

Regression coefficients (standard error)

Regression coefficients (standard error)

Happening ratio

Regression coefficients (standard error)

Happening ratio

Regression coefficients (standard error)

Happening ratio

Reference(2008)

2009

1.14 (0.06)***

3.14

1.11 (0.06)***

3.03

1.07 (0.06)***

2.91

2010

1.48 (0.05)***

4.39

1.50 (0.06)***

4.48

1.36 (0.06)***

3.90

2011

3.08 (0.05)***

21.66

3.08 (0.05)***

21.67

2.93 (0.05)***

18.65

2012

3.49 (0.05)***

32.83

3.48 (0.05)***

32.55

3.32 (0.05)***

27.54

2013

3.36 (0.05)***

28.67

3.38 (0.05)***

29.30

3.23 (0.05)***

25.20

2014

3.17 (0.05)***

23.76

3.20 (0.05)***

24.64

3.06 (0.05)***

21.42

Issues (others)

Demolition and acquisition

−0.07 (0.02)***

0.93

−0.14 (0.02)***

Municipal construction

0.61 (0.02)***

1.84

0.52 (0.02)***

Environment protection

−2.60 (0.02)***

0.07

−2.66 (0.03)***

Educ+I45:O54ation

0.08 (0.02)***

1.08

−0.02 (0.02)

Employment

−0.28 (0.02)***

0.75

−0.38 (0.02)***

Enterprise affairs

0.13 (0.02)***

1.14

0.06 (0.02)**

Rural agriculture

0.15 (0.02)***

1.16

0.02 (0.001)

Corruption

0.20 (0.02)***

1.22

0.08 (0.02)***

Medical hygiene

0.32 (0.02)***

1.38

0.22 (0.02)***

Social security

0.20 (0.02)***

1.22

0.10 (0.02)***

Culture and entertainment

0.12 (0.02)***

1.13

0.01 (0.03)

Secretary (Governor)

0.09 (0.01)***

Posting in real-name

0.18 (0.01)***

Sentimental tendency

−0.05 (0.01)***

Ln (tsxt length)

0.32 (0.01)***

Constant term

−8.58 (1.00)***

−11.47 (1.00)***

0.00

−11.38 (1.00)***

0.00

−12.68 (1.00)***

0

Province dummy variable

yes

yes

yes

yes

Log likelihood

−90884.1

−79245.7

−69900.8

−69257.7

Pseudo R2

0.3239

0.4105

0.4703

0.4752

N

212224

212224

208272

208272