Raw Data

The standard model GM(1,1)

Method of Guan-Jun (2000)

Method of Yao and Wang (2014)

Modified

GM(1,1) Model

Year

Actual

Values

Model Values

APE (%)

Model Values

APE (%)

Model Values

APE (%)

Model Values

APE (%)

2005

504.5

2006

546.1

563.49

3.18

565.90

3.63

564.27

3.33

563.82

3.25

2007

565.9

582.51

2.93

585.07

3.39

583.24

3.06

582.28

2.89

2008

607.7

602.17

0.91

604.90

0.46

602.85

0.80

601.35

1.05

2009

639.5

622.49

2.66

625.39

2.21

623.13

2.56

621.03

2.89

2010

661.8

643.50

2.77

646.58

2.30

644.08

2.68

641.37

3.09

2011

681.5

665.21

2.39

668.49

1.91

665.74

2.31

662.37

2.81

2012

688.8

687.66

0.16

691.14

0.34

688.12

0.10

684.05

0.69

2013

699.8

710.87

1.58

714.56

2.11

711.26

1.64

706.45

0.95

2014

721.4

734.86

1.87

738.77

2.41

735.18

1.91

729.58

1.13

MAPE

In-sample

2.05

2.08

2.04

2.08

2015

737.8

759.66

2.96

763.80

3.52

759.90

3.00

753.46

2.12

2016

748.6

785.30

4.90

789.68

5.49

785.46

4.92

778.13

3.94

2017

761.5

811.80

6.61

816.43

7.21

811.87

6.61

803.61

5.53

2018

791.0

839.20

6.09

844.09

6.71

839.17

6.09

829.92

4.92

MAPE

Out-sample

5.14

5.73

5.16

4.13