| Raw Data | The standard model GM(1,1) | Method of Guan-Jun (2000) | Method of Yao and Wang (2014) | Modified GM(1,1) Model | |||||
| Year | Actual Values | Model Values | APE (%) | Model Values | APE (%) | Model Values | APE (%) | Model Values | APE (%) |
| 2007 | 121,480,663 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2008 | 145,007,374 | 158,094,556 | 9.03 | 160,801,850 | 10.89 | 159,093,730 | 9.71 | 160,254,933 | 10.52 |
| 2009 | 165,027,065 | 178,952,574 | 8.44 | 182,358,386 | 10.50 | 180,053,227 | 9.11 | 178,938,473 | 8.43 |
| 2010 | 195,618,471 | 202,562,470 | 3.55 | 206,804,715 | 5.72 | 203,773,992 | 4.17 | 199,800,259 | 2.14 |
| 2011 | 238,692,936 | 229,287,310 | 3.94 | 234,528,234 | 1.74 | 230,619,804 | 3.38 | 223,094,244 | 6.54 |
| 2012 | 286,553,052 | 259,538,060 | 9.43 | 265,968,272 | 7.18 | 261,002,366 | 8.92 | 249,103,991 | 13.07 |
| 2013 | 303,647,182 | 293,779,907 | 3.25 | 301,623,052 | 0.67 | 295,387,620 | 2.72 | 278,146,119 | 8.40 |
| 2014 | 328,064,609 | 332,539,411 | 1.36 | 342,057,586 | 4.27 | 334,302,893 | 1.90 | 310,574,163 | 5.33 |
| 2015 | 361,291,927 | 376,412,605 | 4.19 | 387,912,634 | 7.37 | 378,344,983 | 4.72 | 346,782,876 | 4.02 |
| MAPE In-sample |
|
| 5.40 |
| 6.04 |
| 5.58 |
| 7.30 |
| 2016 | 388,883,850 | 426,074,156 | 9.56 | 439,914,850 | 13.12 | 428,189,314 | 10.11 | 387,213,030 | 0.43 |
| 2017 | 425,620,069 | 482,287,746 | 13.31 | 498,888,301 | 17.21 | 484,600,290 | 13.86 | 432,356,788 | 1.58 |
| MAPE Out-sample |
|
| 11.44 |
| 15.17 |
| 11.98 |
| 1.01 |