Period

(t)

Months

Actual (2013)

Expected estimated Forecast Values

Estimated Errors “ e i

AR(2)

Y t

Quadratic Trend

X ^ t

( X t = Y t + X ^ t )

361

January

115.41

−4.6296

116.88

112.25

3.16

362

February

118.69

−4.1159

117.74

113.62

5.07

363

March

110.57

−3.5135

118.61

115.10

−4.53

364

April

105.17

−2.9284

119.48

116.55

−11.38

365

May

105.83

−2.4050

120.36

117.96

−12.13

366

June

106.12

−1.9566

121.24

119.28

−13.16

367

July

110.21

−1.5821

122.12

120.54

−10.33

368

August

113.62

−1.2741

123.00

121.73

−8.11

369

September

114.3

−1.0233

123.89

122.87

−8.57

370

October

112.44

−0.8204

124.78

123.96

−11.52

371

November

111.47

−0.6570

125.68

125.02

−13.55

372

December

113.11

−0.5257

126.58

126.05

−12.94

MAPE

8.64