RISK | EVOLUTION | EVALUATION |
Countries | High and stable | - low overall attractiveness of the business environment (last places in international assessments) - socio-political tensions in Cameroon, CAR and Chad - some progress made by certain States in the creation of companies |
Macroeconomics
| Moderate and stable | - expected recovery in growth to 2.2%; - recovery of public accounts; - external sustainability of the currency still fragile (2.7 months of reserves for the import of goods and services. Currency external coverage rate around 60%); - fragile forecasts, highly dependent on oil prices and the outcome of programs with the IMF |
Credit | High and rising | - improved growth prospects - deterioration in the quality of the bank loan portfolio (significant increase in doubtful and fixed loans of 12.5% and 15.5% respectively); - continued rise in the cost of resources mobilized on the government securities market (above the TIAO) |
Market | Weak and stable | - timid markets in a context of expected recovery - illiquid securities (liquidity ratios on BVMAC and DSX below 0.5%) |
Liquidity | Moderate and stable | - decline in recourse to BCAS refinancing (about 30% to 482.1 billion between June 2017 and June 2018) - 20.3% increase in bank reserves with the BCAS - 42/51 banks have a liquidity ratio > 100%, compared to 41 in June 2017; - worrying liquidity of the OPS, in relation to their management and governance problems (immediate cash ratio at 41% for a standard of 100%) |
Solvab | Moderate and stable | - generally satisfactory situation at the level of the banks (45 banks out of 51 complying with the risk coverage ratio); - comfortable situation in terms of insurance (rate of coverage of regulated commitments by quality assets above the standard of 100%) |