RISK

EVOLUTION

EVALUATION

Countries

High and stable

- low overall attractiveness of the business environment (last places in international assessments)

- socio-political tensions in Cameroon, CAR and Chad

- some progress made by certain States in the creation of companies

Macroeconomics

Moderate and stable

- expected recovery in growth to 2.2%;

- recovery of public accounts;

- external sustainability of the currency still fragile (2.7 months of reserves for the import of goods and services. Currency external coverage rate around 60%);

- fragile forecasts, highly dependent on oil prices and the outcome of programs with the IMF

Credit

High and rising

- improved growth prospects

- deterioration in the quality of the bank loan portfolio (significant increase in doubtful and fixed loans of 12.5% and 15.5% respectively);

- continued rise in the cost of resources mobilized on the government securities market (above the TIAO)

Market

Weak and stable

- timid markets in a context of expected recovery

- illiquid securities (liquidity ratios on BVMAC and DSX below 0.5%)

Liquidity

Moderate and stable

- decline in recourse to BCAS refinancing (about 30% to 482.1 billion between June 2017 and June 2018)

- 20.3% increase in bank reserves with the BCAS

- 42/51 banks have a liquidity ratio > 100%, compared to 41 in June 2017;

- worrying liquidity of the OPS, in relation to their management and governance problems (immediate cash ratio at 41% for a standard of 100%)

Solvab

Moderate and stable

- generally satisfactory situation at the level of the banks (45 banks out of 51 complying with the risk coverage ratio);

- comfortable situation in terms of insurance (rate of coverage of regulated commitments by quality assets above the standard of 100%)