Structural shocks (innovation) | Forecast (months) | BR GDP | Inflation | Credit | Interest rate | Exchange rate |
Commodity prices | 1 | 4.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 2.5 | 6.39 |
4 | 30.98 | 5.41 | 0.63 | 5.35 | 18.06 | |
12 | 53.99 | 4.97 | 16.07 | 8.95 | 31.83 | |
24 | 67.43 | 5.09 | 46.91 | 14.7 | 43.03 | |
US GDP | 1 | 0.24 | 0.05 | 0.88 | 0.01 | 2.29 |
4 | 9.94 | 1.27 | 0.28 | 0.33 | 1.04 | |
12 | 13.77 | 1.4 | 3.06 | 3.92 | 0.85 | |
24 | 8.26 | 1.47 | 2.66 | 7.76 | 1.72 | |
BR GDP | 1 | 64.2 | 14.79 | 3.4 | 0.43 | 4.16 |
4 | 36.6 | 13.12 | 2.98 | 0.27 | 1.49 | |
12 | 14.17 | 12.44 | 5.29 | 2.37 | 0.79 | |
24 | 7.74 | 12.27 | 1.79 | 3.09 | 0.65 | |
Inflation | 1 | 23.76 | 83.48 | 6.97 | 3.82 | 1.08 |
4 | 13.73 | 71.38 | 16 | 3.06 | 3.03 | |
12 | 4.66 | 61.06 | 10.68 | 5.48 | 2.43 | |
24 | 3.21 | 59.91 | 5.49 | 5.42 | 1.92 | |
Credit | 1 | 4.08 | 0.94 | 49.85 | 26.39 | 8.72 |
4 | 1.17 | 3.01 | 33.23 | 30.21 | 5.96 | |
12 | 2.6 | 4.37 | 10.38 | 29.37 | 3.94 | |
24 | 2.31 | 4.41 | 3.53 | 24.85 | 3.1 | |
Interest rate | 1 | 2.82 | 0.65 | 34.49 | 59.46 | 1.7 |
4 | 3.35 | 0.73 | 45.78 | 50.34 | 0.79 | |
12 | 8.7 | 0.87 | 51.69 | 42.76 | 0.77 | |
24 | 8.68 | 1.14 | 33.59 | 36.56 | 0.76 | |
Exchange rate | 1 | 0.35 | 0.08 | 4.28 | 7.38 | 75.65 |
4 | 4.22 | 5.06 | 2.1 | 10.43 | 69.62 | |
12 | 2.11 | 14.88 | 2.83 | 7.13 | 59.39 | |
24 | 2.36 | 15.7 | 6 | 7.63 | 48.82 |