Structural shocks (innovation)

Forecast (months)

BR GDP

Inflation

Credit

Interest rate

Exchange rate

Commodity prices

1

4.6

0

0.11

2.5

6.39

4

30.98

5.41

0.63

5.35

18.06

12

53.99

4.97

16.07

8.95

31.83

24

67.43

5.09

46.91

14.7

43.03

US GDP

1

0.24

0.05

0.88

0.01

2.29

4

9.94

1.27

0.28

0.33

1.04

12

13.77

1.4

3.06

3.92

0.85

24

8.26

1.47

2.66

7.76

1.72

BR GDP

1

64.2

14.79

3.4

0.43

4.16

4

36.6

13.12

2.98

0.27

1.49

12

14.17

12.44

5.29

2.37

0.79

24

7.74

12.27

1.79

3.09

0.65

Inflation

1

23.76

83.48

6.97

3.82

1.08

4

13.73

71.38

16

3.06

3.03

12

4.66

61.06

10.68

5.48

2.43

24

3.21

59.91

5.49

5.42

1.92

Credit

1

4.08

0.94

49.85

26.39

8.72

4

1.17

3.01

33.23

30.21

5.96

12

2.6

4.37

10.38

29.37

3.94

24

2.31

4.41

3.53

24.85

3.1

Interest rate

1

2.82

0.65

34.49

59.46

1.7

4

3.35

0.73

45.78

50.34

0.79

12

8.7

0.87

51.69

42.76

0.77

24

8.68

1.14

33.59

36.56

0.76

Exchange rate

1

0.35

0.08

4.28

7.38

75.65

4

4.22

5.06

2.1

10.43

69.62

12

2.11

14.88

2.83

7.13

59.39

24

2.36

15.7

6

7.63

48.82