| Future Water Shortage Risks | |||
| Model Run | Scenario | Indicators of Impact or Risk | |
| Impact Assessment | Socio-economic (adaptation level) | Climatic Change (scenario) |
|
| Climate change only, demand constant | 14-day storage | Year 2075, using CGCM2 | Return period = 8.79 |
| Increased demand, no climate change | 7-day storage | Current climate | Return period = 8.15 |
| Increased demand, with climate change | 7-day storage | Year 2075 CGCM2 | Return period = 5.62 |
| Adaptation: Increase storage (compare with Runs 1 and 4 above to assess relative effects of adaptation options) | |||
| Level of adaptation (increased storage) required to meet current risk policy | Days of storage beyond 14 needed to reach 1-in-25 year return period | Current climate | Additional storage days = 11 Return period change: From: 1-in 13 To: 1-in-25 Additional Storage required: 38,720 m3 |
| Level of adaptation (increased storage) to future risks from rising demand without climate change | Days of storage beyond 7 needed to reach 1-in-25 year return period | Current climate | Additional storage days = 18 Return period change: From: 1-in-8 To: 1-in-25 Additional storage require: 63,360 m3 |
| Level of adaptation (increased storage) to future risks, with climate change and rising demand | Days of storage beyond 7 needed to reach a 1-in-25 year return period | Year 2075 CGCM2 | Additional storage days = 24 Return period change: From: 1-in-6 To: 1-in-25 Additional storage required |
| Level of adaptation (increased storage) to future risks, with climate change and rising demand, with tourism industry having to provide its own water supply, aside from residents | Days of storage beyond 7 needed to reach a 1-in-25 year return period | Year 2075 CGCM2 | Additional storage AVOIDED: 36403.64 m3 |