Issue

Data source

Assumptions

Establishment cost

Teagasc (2015)

?/span>3650/ha

Subsidies

Sitka spruce (SS) (DAFM, 2015)

Establishment Grant: 2860/ha, Maint grant: ?90/ha. Annual premium: ?10/yr (15 yrs)

Sph (stems per hectare)

Afforestation Scheme

FC static yield model

Spacing dictated by species

Reduction in sph over life-cycle

Productive area

Afforestation Scheme

85%

Maintenance costs

Teagasc (2015)

Management: ?0/year (yr 6 onwards); Insurance: ?0/yr (yr 6 to 20); Inspection paths: ?5/ha (yr 14)

Maincrop (MC), dbh

FC static yield model

FC static yield model

Merchantable timber volume Net Realisable Volume

FC static yield model

FIVE/ForBES model

Mean tree volume. The model provides a breakdown of volume by product category.

MTV net of cost of sales, harvest losses, sph

Yield Class

FC static yield

Sitka spruce (SS) yield class 14 - 24

TH vs No TH

FC static yield model

Thinning assumes stable sites without undue risk

Thin and No Thin options calculated for all scenarios

Thinning yield

Unthinned yield

FC static yield model

Stands thinned to (MTT4).

Optimal rotations:

Silvicultural

Reduced MAI

Financial max NPV

ForBES/FC static yield model

ForBES/FC model

ForBES

Rotation of MAI

Reduced rotation

Max NPV of 30 to 50 year rotations

Costs

Establishment and maintenance

Harvesting

All costs which occur before the current age are treated as sunk costs. Afforestation: current age = 0

Establishment, maintenance and re-establishment costs

Teagasc Forestry Development Department

Establishment, maintenance and re-forestation costs are representative of those in common use in the farm forestry sector as determined by expert opinion in the Forestry Development Department, Teagasc.

Harvest Road costs

Only applicable if thinning

Assume costs covered by grant for farm forests

Cost of sales

FIVE/ForBES

Based on % reduction in NRV Thinning: 12, Clearfell: 5

Harvest losses

FIVE/ForBES

Conifers: Include % reduction in NRV.

Incomes

The model uses price size curves (PSC) based on average tree size plus volume assortments to calculate timber revenues

Log optimisation

FIVE/ForBES

The proportion in each product category is based on market knowledge and is for average quality crops.

Allocation to assortments (peping)

FC assortment tables ( Hamilton, 1975 ; Matthews and Mackie, 2006; Jordan, 1992 )

The model estimates the volume of large sawlog, pallet, pulp and stake material in thinnings and clearfell (no stake recovery from non-spruce or broadleaved species).

Timber prices: -conifers

Coillte 10 year price series based on average tree size (ITGA, 2014)

Timber prices and costs keep pace with inflation. Uses price size curves and NRV from FIVE to calculate timber revenues.

Timber prices: -broadleaves

Timber price surveys in UK and Ireland

Broadleaf timber prices are based on smaller samples and are not as robust as conifer prices.

Subsidies

Forest Service (DAFM, 2015)

Teagasc Forest Subsidies Model (Ryan et al., 2014)

Current SS subsidies: ?10/ha for 15 years

Historic subsidies

Price/Cost indices

CSO (2014) -See Appendix 1 for details

Component specific CPI and average CPI applied

Discount rate

Clinch (1999)

5%

Reforestation

Teagasc (2015)

?500 at end of first rotation