| Explanatory Variables | Coefficient (RCSE) |
| Election-Specific Context |
|
| Incumbent | 511.648 (4573.636) |
| Candidate Profile | 2.304 (3.561) |
| Female Candidate | 3992.397 (3704.440) |
| Republican | 1821.130 (2376.857) |
| Open Seat | −2077.504 (2014.05) |
| Competitive Race | 6651.584* (3375.189) |
| State & Institutional Context |
|
| Divided Government | −2469.040* (1219.803) |
| Formal Powers of Governors | 493.5829* (199.611) |
| Contribution Limit | 1479.477 (973.096) |
| State Population | 0.0002 (0.0001) |
| Temporal Effects |
|
| Year Trend | 371.750 (453.573) |
| Constant | −13634.870* (5655.827) |
| Number of clusters (candidate) | 168 |
| Number of observations | 191 |
| F-test | 2.61 |
| Prob > F | 0.004 |
| R2 | 0.085 |
| Root MSE | 17165 |