Total

First spell

Second spell

Third spell

Personal Income

26.148*

29.051*

31.913*

2.925

(3.419)

(5.113)

(6.743)

(11.910)

Population

−1.1E−08

1.4E−07**

−8.8E−08

−3.6E−07

(3.7E−08)

(6.5E−08)

(5.9E−08)

(4.6E−07)

Interest Rate

−0.013*

−0.026*

−0.008

0.024**

(0.004)

(0.006)

(0.006)

(0.012)

Second Period

1.263*

1.198**

1.577*

−0.040

(0.305)

(0.568)

(0.465)

(0.720)

Third Period

1.098*

1.620*

0.661

−0.129

(0.325)

(0.564)

(0.580)

(0.779)

Fourth Period

0.944*

1.568*

0.407

−0.869

(0.351)

(0.580)

(0.671)

(1.166)

Fifth Period

1.081*

1.094***

0.928

2.489

(0.349)

(0.607)

(0.591)

(0.900)

Sixth Period

1.335*

2.133*

0.842

1.166

(0.364)

(0.606)

(0.611)

(1.404)

Seventh Period

1.688*

1.745**

2.073*

1.208

(0.389)

(0.709)

(0.592)

(1.651)

Eighth Period

1.896*

2.304*

2.057*

−28.497

(0.427)

(0.725)

(0.676)

(2329017)

Ninth Period

2.826*

3.147*

3.326*

-

(0.461)

(0.704)

(0.874)

-

Tenth Period

1.293***

1.914**

1.187

-

(0.727)

(0.969)

(1.381)

-

Eleventh Period

2.016*

2.623*

2.128

-

(0.722)

(0.917)

(1.601)

-

Twelfth Period

2.866*

3.924*

−25.722

-

(0.960)

(1.275)

(1708642)

-

Thirteenth Period

2.377***

-

−26.303

-

(1.445)

-

(1708642)

-

Fourteenth Period

−28.082

-

−27.155

-

(2720641)

-

(1708642)

-

Constant

−3.084*

−3.903*

−3.012*

−1.018

(0.281)

(0.533)

(0.460)

(0.734)

Observation

1057

549

403

90

Log Likelihood

−480.876

−224.068

−170.641

−44.929