EXPECTED VALUE OF PRESENT PHASE

(MUS$)

PROBABILTY OF

OCCURRENCE BETWEEN

CONSECUTIVE PHASES

PHASE TIME

EXPENSES

(MUS$)

EXPECTED VALUE PREVIOUS PHASE

(MUS$)

666

372

0

0.88

1

9

{[0.47 × 666 +0.53 × 0]/1.05} - 9

(372 × 0.88)/1.10

298

[298 × 1.05 - 0]/[666 - 0]

0.47

289

VALUE OF

CURRENT PHASE

PROBABILITY OF

NEUTRAL RISK

IN

YEARS

IN

MUS$

VALUE OF PREVIOUS PHASE