Superordinate objective (category)

Time series analysis

Trend estimation

Method

Running mean

Description + literature

Calculation of running 10- and 11-year averages as well as running 30- and 31-year averages, respectively, from transient time series of simulated climate parameters. (Note: If the central point of the chosen running time interval is considered, usage of 11- and 31-year averages is useful.)

Useful for (parameter, time resolution)

Arbitrary variables in monthly, seasonal and yearly resolution.

Requirements for application

Sufficiently long, gap-free time series.

Result/interpretation

Rendering the time series as running 10- or 11-year means allows to visualize the decadal variability. Rendering the time series as running 30- or 31-year means allows to determined the bandwidth of the climate change.

Assessment

Simple, fast analysis and visualization.

Example/publication

Jacob, D., Göttel, H., Kotlarski, S., Lorenz, P., Sieck, K. (2008): Klimaauswirkungen und Anpassung in Deutschland: Erstellung regionaler Klimaszenarien für Deutschland mit dem Klimamodell REMO. Forschungsbericht 204 41 138 Teil 2, i.A. des UBA Dessau

Jacob, D., Bülow, K., Kotova, L., Moseley, C., Petersen, J., Rechid, D.: Regionale Klimasimulationen für Europa und Deutschland-in Vorbereitung

Example 1: Projected changes in winter temperature in the Hamburg metropolitan area as simulated with REMO and CLM, compared with the reference period 1971-2000; plotted as running 11-year means.

Example 2: Projected changes in winter temperature in the Hamburg metropolitan area as simulated with REMO and CLM, compared with the reference period 1971-2000; plotted as running 31-year means, also shown yearly values for various scenarios and runs (grey).

Contact/project

Diana Rechid, MPI für Meteorologie, diana.rechid@zmaw.de

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