State Name | Fitted ARIMA Model | U5MR Values | Year | |||||||||||||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |||
Andhra Pradesh | (0, 1, 1) | Predicted | 43 | 42 | 40 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 26 |
LCL | 35 | 32 | 29 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 13 | ||
UCL | 53 | 54 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 54 | 54 | 53 | 53 | 52 | 52 | 51 | 50 | ||
Assam | (0, 1, 1) | Predicted | 74 | 72 | 70 | 69 | 67 | 65 | 63 | 62 | 60 | 59 | 57 | 56 | 54 | 53 | 51 | 50 |
LCL | 63 | 62 | 60 | 58 | 57 | 55 | 54 | 53 | 51 | 50 | 49 | 47 | 46 | 45 | 44 | 43 | ||
UCL | 87 | 85 | 83 | 81 | 79 | 76 | 75 | 73 | 71 | 69 | 67 | 65 | 64 | 62 | 60 | 59 | ||
Bihar | (0, 1, 1) | Predicted | 52 | 49 | 47 | 46 | 44 | 42 | 40 | 39 | 37 | 36 | 34 | 33 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 |
LCL | 40 | 36 | 33 | 31 | 29 | 26 | 25 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | ||
UCL | 66 | 67 | 67 | 67 | 67 | 66 | 66 | 65 | 64 | 63 | 62 | 61 | 60 | 59 | 58 | 57 | ||
Gujarat | (0, 1, 1) | Predicted | 49 | 47 | 45 | 43 | 42 | 40 | 38 | 37 | 35 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 26 |
LCL | 42 | 39 | 36 | 34 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | ||
UCL | 58 | 57 | 56 | 55 | 54 | 53 | 52 | 51 | 50 | 48 | 47 | 46 | 45 | 43 | 42 | 41 | ||
Haryana | (0, 1, 1) | Predicted | 47 | 45 | 44 | 42 | 41 | 40 | 38 | 37 | 36 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 |
LCL | 38 | 36 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | ||
UCL | 59 | 58 | 57 | 56 | 55 | 54 | 52 | 51 | 50 | 49 | 48 | 47 | 46 | 44 | 43 | 42 | ||
Himachal Pradesh | (0, 1, 1) | Predicted | 38 | 37 | 36 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 23 |
LCL | 30 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 18 | ||
UCL | 49 | 48 | 46 | 44 | 43 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 37 | 36 | 35 | 34 | 33 | 31 | 30 | 29 | ||
Karnataka | (0, 1, 1) | Predicted | 35 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
LCL | 30 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 12 | ||
UCL | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 41 | 40 | 40 | 39 | 38 | 38 | 37 | 36 | 35 | 35 | 34 | 33 | ||
Kerala | (0, 1, 1) | Predicted | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
LCL | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ||
UCL | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | ||
Madhya Pradesh | (0, 1, 1) | Predicted | 70 | 68 | 65 | 63 | 61 | 58 | 56 | 54 | 52 | 50 | 48 | 46 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 40 |
LCL | 63 | 60 | 57 | 54 | 52 | 49 | 47 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 34 | 33 | 31 | ||
UCL | 79 | 77 | 75 | 73 | 71 | 69 | 67 | 65 | 63 | 61 | 59 | 57 | 56 | 54 | 52 | 51 | ||
Maharashtra | (0, 1, 1) | Predicted | 30 | 29 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
LCL | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | ||
UCL | 34 | 33 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | ||
Orissa | (0, 1, 1) | Predicted | 66 | 64 | 62 | 60 | 58 | 56 | 54 | 52 | 51 | 49 | 48 | 46 | 45 | 43 | 42 | 41 |
LCL | 58 | 54 | 52 | 49 | 47 | 45 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 29 | ||
UCL | 75 | 74 | 73 | 72 | 71 | 69 | 68 | 67 | 66 | 64 | 63 | 62 | 60 | 59 | 58 | 56 | ||
Punjab | (0, 1, 1) | Predicted | 33 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 19 |