State Name

Fitted ARIMA Model

U5MR Values

Year

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Andhra Pradesh

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

43

42

40

39

38

36

35

34

33

32

31

30

29

28

27

26

LCL

35

32

29

27

25

24

22

21

20

19

18

17

16

15

14

13

UCL

53

54

55

55

55

55

55

55

54

54

53

53

52

52

51

50

Assam

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

74

72

70

69

67

65

63

62

60

59

57

56

54

53

51

50

LCL

63

62

60

58

57

55

54

53

51

50

49

47

46

45

44

43

UCL

87

85

83

81

79

76

75

73

71

69

67

65

64

62

60

59

Bihar

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

52

49

47

46

44

42

40

39

37

36

34

33

31

30

29

28

LCL

40

36

33

31

29

26

25

23

21

20

19

18

16

15

15

14

UCL

66

67

67

67

67

66

66

65

64

63

62

61

60

59

58

57

Gujarat

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

49

47

45

43

42

40

38

37

35

34

32

31

30

29

28

26

LCL

42

39

36

34

32

30

28

27

25

24

22

21

20

19

18

17

UCL

58

57

56

55

54

53

52

51

50

48

47

46

45

43

42

41

Haryana

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

47

45

44

42

41

40

38

37

36

34

33

32

31

30

29

28

LCL

38

36

34

32

31

29

28

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

19

18

UCL

59

58

57

56

55

54

52

51

50

49

48

47

46

44

43

42

Himachal Pradesh

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

38

37

36

34

33

32

31

30

29

28

27

26

25

24

24

23

LCL

30

29

28

27

26

25

24

23

22

22

21

20

20

19

18

18

UCL

49

48

46

44

43

41

40

39

37

36

35

34

33

31

30

29

Karnataka

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

35

34

33

32

31

29

28

27

26

25

24

24

23

22

21

20

LCL

30

27

26

24

23

21

20

19

18

17

16

15

15

14

13

12

UCL

42

42

42

42

41

40

40

39

38

38

37

36

35

35

34

33

Kerala

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

12

11

11

10

10

9

9

9

8

8

8

7

7

7

6

6

LCL

8

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

UCL

18

18

18

18

19

19

19

18

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

17

Madhya Pradesh

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

70

68

65

63

61

58

56

54

52

50

48

46

45

43

41

40

LCL

63

60

57

54

52

49

47

45

43

41

39

38

36

34

33

31

UCL

79

77

75

73

71

69

67

65

63

61

59

57

56

54

52

51

Maharashtra

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

30

29

27

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

19

18

17

17

16

15

LCL

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

19

18

17

17

16

15

15

14

13

UCL

34

33

31

30

29

27

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

19

18

17

Orissa

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

66

64

62

60

58

56

54

52

51

49

48

46

45

43

42

41

LCL

58

54

52

49

47

45

43

41

39

38

36

35

33

32

31

29

UCL

75

74

73

72

71

69

68

67

66

64

63

62

60

59

58

56

Punjab

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

33

32

31

30

28

27

26

25

24

23

23

22

21

20

19

19