State Name

Fitted ARIMA Model

NNMR Values

Year

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Andhra Pradesh

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

24

24

23

23

22

22

21

20

20

19

19

18

18

18

17

17

LCL

21

20

20

19

18

17

17

16

16

15

15

14

14

13

13

12

UCL

28

28

28

27

27

27

26

26

26

25

25

24

24

24

23

23

Assam

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

26

25

24

24

23

22

22

21

21

20

20

19

18

18

17

17

LCL

20

19

18

17

16

15

14

14

13

12

12

11

11

10

10

9

UCL

33

33

33

33

33

33

33

33

33

33

32

32

32

31

31

31

Bihar

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

26

26

25

24

23

23

22

21

21

20

19

19

18

18

17

17

LCL

22

21

20

19

18

17

16

15

14

14

13

13

12

12

11

11

UCL

31

31

31

31

31

31

30

30

30

29

29

28

28

27

27

27

Gujarat

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

25

24

24

23

22

22

21

20

20

19

18

18

17

17

16

16

LCL

21

20

19

18

17

16

16

15

14

14

13

13

12

12

11

11

UCL

31

30

30

29

29

28

28

27

27

26

26

25

25

24

24

23

Haryana

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

27

27

26

26

25

25

24

24

24

23

23

22

22

21

21

21

LCL

23

23

22

22

21

21

21

20

20

19

19

19

18

18

18

17

UCL

33

32

31

31

30

30

29

28

28

27

27

26

26

25

25

24

Himachal Pradesh

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

25

25

25

25

25

25

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

23

23

22

LCL

14

12

11

10

10

9

8

8

7

7

7

6

6

6

5

5

UCL

47

46

46

45

44

44

42

42

40

40

38

36

36

34

34

33

Karnataka

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

21

21

20

20

19

19

18

18

17

17

17

16

16

16

15

15

LCL

17

16

15

14

13

12

12

11

11

10

10

9

9

9

8

8

UCL

27

27

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

Kerala

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

6

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

LCL

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

UCL

8

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

Madhya Pradesh

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

35

34

33

33

32

31

30

30

29

28

28

27

26

26

25

25

LCL

31

30

28

27

26

25

25

24

23

22

21

21

20

19

19

18

UCL

40

39

39

39

39

38

38

37

37

36

36

35

35

34

34

33

Maharashtra

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

18

17

17

16

16

15

15

14

14

13

13

13

12

12

11

11

LCL

15

15

14

14

14

13

13

12

12

11

11

11

10

10

10

9

UCL

21

20

20

19

18

18

17

17

16

16

15

15

14

14

13

13

Orissa

(0, 1, 1)

Predicted

36

35

35

34

33

32

31

31

30

29

29

28

27

27

26

25