Variables

1. Solar; 2. Gas; 3. Nuclear

The random walk hypothesis

VR (q) = 1

The result of this test VR (q) = 0.97 (actual) and = 0.99 (estimated) emphasizes that the null hypothesis VR (q) = 1 indicates that the selected index of business sectors follows a random walk. This means that the values of the sector are influenced by specific internal or external factors that can be manipulated by individuals or other sectors. This can be asserted by the fact that the main factors affecting the desalination process are not controlled by one or two entities. The main factor is the desalination technology itself, where the utilization of refined high resolution technologies such as the nanotechnology and material amalgamation led to the production of highly refined purification schemes and temperature controlled piping systems. Energy source utilization technology, for example is diverse where we have, in addition to the three mentioned above, coal, oil, wind and other forms of hydroelectric energy sources. In each of these power producing mechanisms the technology is advancing at a fast pace. Fuel saving, emission controls and efficiency are major factors influencing decision makers. Energy sources such as gas, nuclear, solar, etc. are another factor that can be influenced by politics, delivery and distribution and related shipping safety, international relationships, refining technology and more. Desalination technology is more independent than the energy or the energy utilizing technologies. Due to the versatility of the energy techniques employed for desalination and the diversity of the desalination mechanisms, it is that such index does follow a random walk hypothesis.

VR (q) < 1

Although VR (q) = ~1, it is possible the hypothesis is rejected returning VR (q) < 1 which indicates that the related sectors are negatively serially correlated and in a sense in the process to correct a mature market. This interpretation is also possible. Desalination and its related energy sources and technologies have been around for a long time, and the market has gone through many changes and fluctuations technologically and financially. Another interpretation is the possibility that the sectors are approaching a stage in which a financial bubble is about to happen. This interpretation is unlikely since only a few countries are utilizing this technology extensively and the businesses and entities involved in the related technologies are diverse and versatile.

Financial stability

Finance

The interest-based financial potential indicates that the actual values have increased significantly over a period of twenty years for all the three variables by over one hundred percent in comparison to a future value as indicated in Tables 1-3, by AP1, AP2, and AP3 respectively. The present value was calculated by taking the actual value of the first year, and multiplying by 2000 to get the cost of the 2 GJ plant and then financing over twenty years with a 3% interest, using the average relative interest in the US for similar projects. The changes in the actual values over twenty years indicate the significant business financial interest in this industrial sector and its potential future worth.

Variations

The relatively low variance variations despite the large changes and disparities in the actual cost-values indicate that the changes are gradual and paced. The difference in value between the variances and the covariance is due to the large disparity between the actual values of the three industrial energies.

Risk Assessment

1. Portfolio risk estimated to be 17%;

2. Portfolio risk is estimated to be 0.02%;

3. Portfolio risk estimated to be 2%

The portfolio theory’s risk assessment provides us with positive results. The direct solar energy desalination sector, despite its fluctuating data, is more stable in terms of its variation and the negative output is due to the data variations, and the fact that it is not a major sector, where there does not exist a single large scale desalination plant anywhere in the world. Some small mediocrely designed plants exist in the US and Australia. However, the gas-based desalination plants are a major factor in the seawater desalination industry. Although the risk associated with such sector is small, there exists very few gas-based large scale desalination plants and are almost all located in one area, Arabian peninsula, where gas is abundant and cheap. Gas is just like oil subject to political and economic stability of the gas producing countries, and or the areas where gas is produced. Such volatility could make such venture very costly outside the middle east, although the safety of such projects could be in-doubt in case of a war in the area. Not to mention that the gas-based turbines are complex and hard to maintain which may exacerbate the situation. Nuclear energy for desalination is becoming more popular due to the cost effectiveness of the nuclear energy on the long run and its larger risk assessment is due to the increasing variations in the cost of producing electricity through nuclear power, however nuclear power can be more cost-effective if utilized to produce both heat for desalination of seawater and to run electrical turbines for electrical energy. Although this sector is facing an expected snag, because of its diverse applications. Nevertheless, there is a new method for employing nuclear reactors that utilize radioactive elements with short-life cycles, and diminished capacity to make nuclear weapons.