Scenario

Drivers

Description

Core

Continuation of trends

Incidence

Continuation of 2001-2011 observed increasing trend

Mortality

Continuation of 2001-2011 observed

decreasing trend until X

Complication rate transitions

Continuation of 2001-2011 observed trends: reduction in transition from CG0 to CG1 and CG2 until X

Intermediate

Stagnation in incidence + continuation of trends in morbidity and mortality

Incidence

Stabile rate as observed in 2011

Mortality

Continuation of 2001-2011 observed decreasing trend until X

Complication rate transitions

Continuation of 2001-2011 observed trends: reduction in transition from CG0 to CG1 and CG2 until X

Constant

Continuation of 2011 level

Incidence

Stabile rate as observed in 2011

Mortality

Stabile rate as observed in 2011

Complication rate transitions

Stabile rate as observed in 2011