The rational decision-making method advocated by Kepner and Tregoe breaks down the decision-making process into eight steps, to be followed rigorously in the right order and direction. These steps are:

1) State the purpose of the decision;

2) Establish objectives in terms of expected results and available resources;

3) Classify objectives according to two criteria that indicate their importance—imperatives and desirables—then determine the relative value of the desirable criteria using, for example, weighting indices;

4) Develop the options—A, B, C, D, ... —that satisfy these objectives and from which the choices will be made;

5) Evaluate each option using criteria indicating the importance of the objectives;

6) Select, as a provisional decision, the best option resulting from this evaluation;

7) Evaluate the negative consequences of the provisional decision, which may not be the best one if we take into account the effects that the actions to be taken to achieve the objectives pursued may have in the future;

8) Make a final choice.

The assessment of the negative consequences of the decision (its dystopian effects), answers the following two questions:

a) If this provisional decision is taken, what anomalies, shortcomings, dysfunctions or disadvantages for the human actor could result?

b) How could this option hinder growth and development?

The analysis covers a number of areas, including the quality and relevance of the results to be produced in the short term, their medium-term effects and long-term impacts, human resources and the factors influencing their performance, the dynamics of the organizational system (formal and informal organization, vertical and horizontal coordination, intergovernmental relations, communications, decentralization and delegation, ...), financial resources, material resources, technological resources (software and equipment, factors of influence external to the organization (influence of stakeholders in the decisions to be made, target populations, organization of parliamentarians, pressure groups, etc.). This analysis includes the identification of difficulties in implementing the provisional decision.

The assessment involves estimating the degree of threat posed by each identified negative consequence. This involves first estimating the probability of the consequence actually occurring, then the degree of impact if it does occur, and its severity. The exercise can mobilize the methods and tools used in the field of foresight (statistics, dialogue with stakeholders in the field involved in the decision or policy concerned, etc.).

The final decision is a choice; the choice of the option that presents an impact, in terms of threat, that the decision-maker, through his personal judgment, feels he can manage.

· If all the options have a very high total impact, the decision can be postponed and the analysis continued;

· If one option has a low total impact and no negative consequences with a high probability of occurring, and a high degree of severity if it does occur, the decision-maker can retain this choice as his decision.