Individual approach (by risk class) | Integrated approach | ||||
A | B | C | A + B + C | B + C | |
(n, k) | |||||
Types of prior function | (150, 0) | (500, 1) | (350, 2) | (1000, 3) | (850, 3) |
1) Uniform distribution | |||||
1.1) u = 1 | |||||
Mean | 1.87% | 1.51% | 2.64% | 1.62% | 1.80% |
Matching percentile | 77.91 | 82.62 | 80.71 | 84.17 | 83.62 |
1.2) u = 0.25 | |||||
Mean | 1.87% | 1.51% | 2.64% | 1.62% | 1.80% |
Matching percentile | 77.89 | 82.62 | 80.70 | 84.17 | 83.62 |
1.3) u = 0.1 | |||||
Mean | 1.74% | 1.49% | 2.47% | 1.60% | 1.77% |
Matching percentile | 76.00 | 82.19 | 78.76 | 83.91 | 83.19 |
1.4) u = 0.01 | |||||
Mean | 0.44% | 0.50% | 0.59% | 0.55% | 0.57% |
Matching percentile | 38.05 | 48.06 | 28.29 | 47.85 | 43.61 |
2) Linear growth | |||||
2.1) u = 1 | |||||
Mean | 4.47% | 3.10% | 4.72% | 2.99% | 3.29% |
Matching percentile | 94.38 | 95.34 | 93.76 | 95.41 | 95.11 |
2.2) u = 0.25 | |||||
Mean | 4.46% | 3.10% | 4.72% | 2.99% | 3.29% |
Matching percentile | 94.33 | 95.34 | 93.75 | 95.41 | 95.11 |
2.3) u = 0.1 | |||||
Mean | 3.67% | 2.93% | 4.04% | 2.89% | 3.13% |
Matching percentile | 91.72 | 94.68 | 91.12 | 95.01 | 94.48 |
2.4) u = 0.01 | |||||
Mean | 0.63% | 0.65% | 0.71% | 0.67% | 0.68% |
Matching percentile | 47.19 | 56.67 | 33.88 | 55.27 | 50.52 |
3) Linear decrease | |||||
3.1) u = 1 | |||||
Mean | 1.82% | 1.49% | 2.58% | 1.59% | 1.77% |
Matching percentile | 77.22 | 82.21 | 80.06 | 83.81 | 83.21 |
3.2) u = 0.25 | |||||
Mean | 1.66% | 1.41% | 2.39% | 1.52% | 1.69% |
Matching percentile | 74.81 | 80.83 | 77.70 | 82.59 | 81.81 |
3.3) u = 0.1 | |||||
Mean | 1.33% | 1.24% | 1.96% | 1.35% | 1.48% |
Matching percentile | 68.75 | 77.24 | 71.00 | 79.31 | 78.01 |
3.4) u = 0.01 | |||||
Mean | 0.30% | 0.35% | 0.47% | 0.40% | 0.41% |
Matching percentile | 28.91 | 37.15 | 21.48 | 36.75 | 32.93 |
4) Conservative | |||||
Mean | 1.92% | 1.54% | 2.69% | 1.64% | 1.83% |
Matching percentile | 78.61 | 83.03 | 81.36 | 84.54 | 84.02 |
5) Immoderate | |||||
Mean | 0.38% | 0.49% | 1.09% | 0.66% | 0.75% |
Matching percentile | 34.17 | 47.49 | 49.17 | 54.52 | 53.96 |
6) Expert judgement | |||||
6.1) Base scenario (a) | |||||
Mean | 2.84% | 2.66% | 2.94% | 2.64% | 2.70% |
Matching percentile | 87.35 | 93.45 | 83.80 | 93.82 | 92.30 |
6.2) Beta distribution as a proxy | |||||
Mean | 2.86% | 2.67% | 2.97% | 2.66% | 2.72% |
Matching percentile | 87.45 | 93.51 | 84.05 | 93.91 | 92.43 |
6.3) Normal distribution as a proxy | |||||
Mean | 2.10% | 1.86% | 2.61% | 1.95% | 2.09% |
Matching percentile | 80.76 | 87.38 | 80.41 | 88.52 | 87.33 |
6.4) Alternative base scenario (b) | |||||
Mean | 1.01% | 1.01% | 1.08% | 1.02% | 1.04% |
Matching percentile | 60.96 | 71.12 | 48.77 | 70.38 | 66.02 |
7) Beta distribution based on EDR | |||||
Mean | 0.38% | 0.50% | 1.11% | 0.67% | 0.76% |
Matching percentile | 34.54 | 47.88 | 49.87 | 54.95 | 54.43 |
EDR | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.57% | 0.30% | 0.35% |
Matching percentile | 0.05 | 22.51 | 27.39 | 27.92 | 28.18 |
Practical rule | |||||
k = 0 | |||||
Mean | 1.87% | - | - | - | - |
Matching percentile | 77.91 | - | - | - | - |
k = 1, 2, 3 | |||||
Minimum bound (97.5%) | - | 0.81% | 1.66% | 0.85% | 0.98% |
Matching percentile | - | 64.31 | 65.03 | 63.83 | 64.03 |
Maximum bound (99.9%) | - | 1.00% | 1.95% | 0.96% | 1.12% |
Matching percentile | - | 71.02 | 70.83 | 68.35 | 68.65 |