Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C(1)

−0.038958

0.005013

−7.771520

0.0000

C(2)

0.249914

0.057364

4.356625

0.0000

C(3)

0.136354

0.142339

0.957955

0.3383

C(4)

−2.144315

2.542913

−0.843251

0.3993

C(5)

−0.184826

0.231718

−0.797633

0.4253

C(6)

411.3472

67.54712

6.089782

0.0000

C(7)

−0.003653

0.004024

−0.907971

0.3641

C(8)

0.080361

0.046043

1.745347

0.0812

C(9)

0.033708

0.114247

0.295048

0.7680

C(10)

2.607662

2.041048

1.277609

0.2017

C(11)

−0.199222

0.185987

−1.071161

0.2843

C(12)

74.25583

54.21613

1.369626

0.1711

C(13)

−0.000141

0.000181

−0.778648

0.4364

C(14)

−0.001500

0.002067

−0.725619

0.4682

C(15)

−0.002994

0.005129

−0.583613

0.5596

C(16)

0.206720

0.091636

2.255882

0.0243

C(17)

−0.016943

0.008350

−2.029074

0.0427

C(18)

4.963978

2.434116

2.039335

0.0417

C(19)

−0.001368

0.002542

−0.538045

0.5907

C(20)

0.078183

0.029094

2.687239

0.0073

C(21)

−0.066563

0.072192

−0.922031

0.3567

C(22)

2.829089

1.289718

2.193572

0.0285

C(23)

−0.125653

0.117523

−1.069180

0.2852

C(24)

44.62109

34.25862

1.302478

0.1930

Determinant residual covariance

2.08E+19

Equation: D(M2) = C(1) * (M2(−1) + 0.574881509507 * COCOA(−1) − 10.3953452322 * CRUDE(−1) − 11.811354045 * GOLD(−1) + 14080.4555981) + C(2) * D(M2(−1)) + C(3) * D(COCOA(−1)) + C(4) * D(CRUDE(−1)) + C(5) * D(GOLD(−1)) + C(6)

Observations: 279

R-squared

0.438883

Mean dependent var

537.9935

Adjusted R-squared

0.428607

S.D. dependent var

1305.104

S.E. of regression

986.5354

Sum squared resid

2.66E+08

Durbin-Watson stat

1.973627

Equation: D(COCOA) = C(7) * (M2(−1) + 0.574881509507 * COCOA(−1) − 10.3953452322 * CRUDE(−1) − 11.811354045 * GOLD(−1) + 14080.4555981) + C(8) * D(M2(−1)) + C(9) * D(COCOA(−1)) + C(10) * D(CRUDE(−1)) + C(11) * D(GOLD(−1)) + C(12)

Observations: 279

R-squared

0.038976

Mean dependent var

113.6340

Adjusted R-squared

0.021374

S.D. dependent var

800.4350

S.E. of regression

791.8344

Sum squared resid

1.71E+08

Durbin-Watson stat

1.908043

Equation: D(CRUDE) = C(13)*( M2(−1) + 0.574881509507 * COCOA(−1) − 10.3953452322 * CRUDE(−1) − 11.811354045 * GOLD(−1) + 14080.4555981) + C(14) * D(M2(−1)) + C(15) * D(COCOA(−1)) + C(16) * D(CRUDE(−1)) + C(17) * D(GOLD(−1)) + C(18)

Observations: 279

R-squared

0.036454

Mean dependent var

3.213474

Adjusted R-squared

0.018806

S.D. dependent var

35.88970

S.E. of regression

35.55062

Sum squared resid

345030.1

Durbin-Watson stat

2.015359

Equation: D(GOLD) = C(19)*( M2(−1) + 0.574881509507 * COCOA(−1) − 10.3953452322 * CRUDE(−1) − 11.811354045*GOLD(−1) + 14080.4555981) + C(20) * D(M2(−1)) + C(21) * D(COCOA(−1)) + C(22) * D(CRUDE(−1)) + C(23) * D(GOLD(−1)) + C(24)

Observations: 279

R-squared

0.059681

Mean dependent var

78.12186

Adjusted R-squared

0.042459

S.D. dependent var

511.3251

S.E. of regression

500.3521

Sum squared resid

68346176

Durbin-Watson stat

1.925121