Raw Data | The standard model GM(1,1) | Method of Guan-Jun (2000) | Method of Yao and Wang (2014) | Modified GM(1,1) Model | |||||
Year | Actual Values | Model Values | APE (%) | Model Values | APE (%) | Model Values | APE (%) | Model Values | APE (%) |
2005 | 504.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2006 | 546.1 | 563.49 | 3.18 | 565.90 | 3.63 | 564.27 | 3.33 | 563.82 | 3.25 |
2007 | 565.9 | 582.51 | 2.93 | 585.07 | 3.39 | 583.24 | 3.06 | 582.28 | 2.89 |
2008 | 607.7 | 602.17 | 0.91 | 604.90 | 0.46 | 602.85 | 0.80 | 601.35 | 1.05 |
2009 | 639.5 | 622.49 | 2.66 | 625.39 | 2.21 | 623.13 | 2.56 | 621.03 | 2.89 |
2010 | 661.8 | 643.50 | 2.77 | 646.58 | 2.30 | 644.08 | 2.68 | 641.37 | 3.09 |
2011 | 681.5 | 665.21 | 2.39 | 668.49 | 1.91 | 665.74 | 2.31 | 662.37 | 2.81 |
2012 | 688.8 | 687.66 | 0.16 | 691.14 | 0.34 | 688.12 | 0.10 | 684.05 | 0.69 |
2013 | 699.8 | 710.87 | 1.58 | 714.56 | 2.11 | 711.26 | 1.64 | 706.45 | 0.95 |
2014 | 721.4 | 734.86 | 1.87 | 738.77 | 2.41 | 735.18 | 1.91 | 729.58 | 1.13 |
MAPE In-sample |
|
| 2.05 |
| 2.08 |
| 2.04 |
| 2.08 |
2015 | 737.8 | 759.66 | 2.96 | 763.80 | 3.52 | 759.90 | 3.00 | 753.46 | 2.12 |
2016 | 748.6 | 785.30 | 4.90 | 789.68 | 5.49 | 785.46 | 4.92 | 778.13 | 3.94 |
2017 | 761.5 | 811.80 | 6.61 | 816.43 | 7.21 | 811.87 | 6.61 | 803.61 | 5.53 |
2018 | 791.0 | 839.20 | 6.09 | 844.09 | 6.71 | 839.17 | 6.09 | 829.92 | 4.92 |
MAPE Out-sample |
|
| 5.14 |
| 5.73 |
| 5.16 |
| 4.13 |